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February 2018 Newsletter

A Survey of San Francisco Bay Area
Real Estate Markets

Median home prices, appreciation rates, luxury home markets,
and other market factors, conditions & trends
February 2018

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Bay Area Home Price Maps

Our newly updated median home price maps for the entire Bay Area by city, for San Francisco by neighborhood, and then specifically for the Marin, Diablo Valley & Lamorinda, and Wine Country markets. To access them, click on the map image below and then roll your cursor over the maps on the webpage.

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Bay Area Q4 2017 Median House Sales Prices

Bay Area 2017 Median Condo Sales Prices

One cannot draw many conclusions regarding the new year market by looking at January data, whose low volume of sales mostly reflects offers accepted in December, however, so far, it appears that the low-inventory/ strong-buyer-demand dynamic is continuing in 2018. One recurring situation in recent years is that buyers jump back into the market in January in larger numbers than sellers getting their homes listed to sell – setting up a mismatch between supply and demand. Typically, many more listings will start pouring onto the market in February and March, and a much better idea regarding where the market is heading in 2018 will be possible once spring selling season data starts coming in.
Since questions constantly arise as to how one development or another is affecting or may affect Bay Area real estate markets – new tax laws, the high-tech boom, interest rates, financial markets, new home construction, climate change, and so on – our chief market analyst has made an attempt to identify and quantify the factors currently at play: Positive & Negative Factors in Bay Area Real Estate Markets

This report will focus on Bay Area trends, but if you are more interested in the San Francisco market specifically, analysis is available via these links: SF Neighborhood Affordability *** SF Neighborhood Price Trends *** Our Latest SF Market Report

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Year-over-Year Home Price Appreciation Rates
Comparing 2017 Median Sales Prices to 2016 Prices

Additional chart: Bay Area Median Home Price Appreciation since 1990

Average Dollar per Square Foot Values
& What You Get for $1 Million in the Bay Area

Your great aunt gives you a check for a million dollars to buy a home, so you go down to the real estate store to fill your cart. Below are some examples of how much home you would get for your money at 2017 average dollar per square foot rates: In Palo Alto, you could buy 626 square feet of home, and in Vallejo, 3817 square feet, with many other options in between.

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Bay Area Luxury Home Markets

Though San Francisco is a major player in luxury home sales, Silicon Valley – Santa Clara & San Mateo Counties together – has over 3.5 times as many homes selling for $2m and above. All 3 counties have similar average dollar per square foot house values in this high-price category. SF dominates the luxury condo market, and these condos, on average, sell at the highest per square foot values in the Bay Area. Marin, Alameda and central Contra Costa Counties have smaller luxury home segments, but you start to get more for your money.

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Market Dynamics Overviews

The decline in active listings available to purchase has played a significant role in pressurizing the market in recent years, especially as buyer demand has increased over the same period during which supply has dropped.

Since median sales prices are so often quoted and compared, it adds context to look at the average size of houses in the different markets. (Comparing median prices to average sizes is not ideal, but you get the idea.)

New Housing Construction

This chart below from the November 2017 Housing Inventory Report issued by the SF Planning Department is for 2016, but illustrates how new housing construction in Alameda County has recently accelerated ahead of San Francisco and Santa Clara. Our larger analysis of this report, which focuses mostly on San Francisco, can be found here: SF New Home Construction Report

Days on Market, Overbidding Asking Prices
& Months Supply of Inventory

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Interest Rate Trends

Interest rate changes will certainly be one of the main factors to keep an eye on in 2018, as they play a huge role in housing affordability.

Bay Area Unemployment Rate Trends

Bay Area Housing Affordability Trends

The CAR Housing Affordability Index, of which the trend lines since 1991 are charted below, estimates the percentage of households who can afford to purchase a median priced house in their county, based on a 20% downpayment. The big factors in this analysis are prevailing household incomes, interest rates, and, of course, quarterly median house sales prices. It should be noted that half of home sales are, by definition, below the median sales price, and that if one included condos in the equation, that would add substantially to affordability percentages.
For Q1 2018, the Index will attempt to factor in the effects of the new federal income tax law limiting mortgage interest, property tax and state income tax deductions, which will presumably reduce affordability percentages further. As seen below, many Bay Area counties are already getting close to historic lows, clearly one of our biggest social and economic challenges.

County to County, Metro Area to Metro Area
& State to State Migration Trends

Bay Area County-to-County Migration

Though people from all over the country and world migrate to and from the Bay Area, the greatest flow is actually between the local counties themselves. In net migration numbers, amid all the back and forth, people are, generally speaking, flowing from the core, most expensive counties to adjacent, somewhat less expensive counties, and then to even more affordable counties outside the inner Bay Area. However, the inner core counties, where the high-tech boom has been most concentrated, attract significant immigration from outside the Bay Area, state and U.S., which is why their population numbers have continued to grow. Note: This chart does not include Santa Clara County, though much of its migration patterns can be seen in the data of the other counties.

County to County, Metro Area to Metro Area
& State to State Migration Trends

Bay Area County-to-County Migration

Though people from all over the country and world migrate to and from the Bay Area, the greatest flow is actually between the local counties themselves. In net migration numbers, amid all the back and forth, people are, generally speaking, flowing from the core, most expensive counties to adjacent, somewhat less expensive counties, and then to even more affordable counties outside the inner Bay Area. However, the inner core counties, where the high-tech boom has been most concentrated, attract significant immigration from outside the Bay Area, state and U.S., which is why their population numbers have continued to grow. Note: This chart does not include Santa Clara County, though much of its migration patterns can be seen in the data of the other counties.

If you want to read about state to state migration patterns, our recent article is here: California Migration Trends
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All our Bay Area reports and articles can be found here: Market Trends & Analysis
One of our recent and popular reports: San Francisco & Bay Area Demographics

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These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources
deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not
our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide
straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions.
Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of
different markets in the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median
prices can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair
market value, and longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term. It is impossible to know how median
prices apply to any particular home without a specific comparative market
analysis. All numbers in this report are to be considered approximate.

© 2018 Paragon Real Estate Group

No one knows San Francisco real estate better than Paragon.

Paragon Real Estate Group

www.paragon-re.com/

Jeff Salgado
Lic# 01501886
350 Rhode Island Street
San Francisco, CA 94103
Direct 415.915.9916

jsalgado(at)paragon-re(dotted)com
https://jeffsalgado.com/

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