The Hottest Neighborhood Market in San Francisco
and Other Real Estate Analyses
October 2016 Paragon Market Report
Before jumping to neighborhood market dynamics and the hottest market in the city, here are a few overview analyses:
2012 – 2016
San Francisco Median Home Prices by Year
1993 – 2016
Biggest Surge in New Luxury Home Listings Ever
Because the time between listings coming on market, offers being negotiated and accepted, and then the transactions actually closing sale is 4 to 6 weeks or more, it will be a little while before we have hard data on how the market responded to this feast of expensive homes hitting the market.
The Hottest, Most Competitive Market in San Francisco
A Shift from Prestigious, Expensive, High-Tech and Hip
to Normal, Middle-Class, Working-People Affordable
With the search for affordable homes, and houses in particular, becoming ever more challenging (or desperate), the greatest pressure of buyer demand moved to a large, lopsided curve of historically less expensive neighborhoods running along the western-most edge of the city from Outer Richmond south to Lake Merced, then east across the southern border with Daly City, and up through Bernal Heights and Bayview. Of these, we believe Realtor District 2, Sunset/Parkside, with its quiet streets; its closeness to the beach, GG Park and highways south to Silicon Valley; and its attractive, modest-sized houses built mostly in the decade before and decade after WWII, is now the hottest, most competitive market in San Francisco.
Percentage of House Sales Selling over Asking Price
SF House-Price Appreciation Rates
Average Days on Market
Months Supply of Inventory:
Buyer Demand vs. Supply of Listings for Sale
San Francisco District Condo Markets
The cooling of the condo market is clearly reflected in the 2016 vs. 2015 statistics. The first chart also illustrates, as mentioned in earlier reports, how the luxury condo segment ($2m+), especially in District 9 (greater SoMa/South Beach/ Yerba Buena) where the majority of new, luxury condo construction is occurring, has softened the most. These charts do not include the many hundreds of newly built or under construction condos listed, accepting offers or sold, which are not reported to MLS, as exact data on that activity is hard to verify.
Chart: Condo % Sales over List Price
Chart: Condo Average Days on Market
District Sales Overview
Sales Volumes and Sales Prices
As illustrated above, the 3 most affordable districts for buying a house in San Francisco are also 3 of the 4 districts with the most house sales.
New Bay Area Hiring Surge?
Employed Resident Count in 4 Central Bay Area Counties
These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value, and longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term. It is impossible to know how median prices apply to any particular home without a specific comparative market analysis.
|No one knows San Francisco real estate better than Paragon.|