San Francisco Real Estate Market Report:
Heading into the Autumn Selling Season
Long-term home price appreciation, San Francisco neighborhood prices,
Bay Area housing affordability, seasonality, market dynamics statistics,
the S&P 500 vs. the Shanghai composite index
September 2016 Update
Annual Median Sales Price Appreciation since 1994
for San Francisco houses, condos and TICs
(Prices in thousands of dollars)
Where to Buy a Home in San Francisco
for the Money You Wish to Pay
26% of SF house sales were under $1 million so far in 2016;
In 2011, that percentage was 75%.
Autumn & the Expected Surge
in New Home Listings
At this point, we are waiting to see if the expected, dramatic spike in new listings occurs as usual, and how buyers react to it if it does.
Our full report on seasonality is here: Seasonality & the SF Market
After 6-Month Decline in 2016,
a Sudden Surge in SF Employment Numbers
The SF market definitely shifted gears this past year, from ludicrous overdrive (as Tesla might describe it) to a more reasonable cruising speed, and it has become much more balanced between buyers and sellers, but we certainly haven’t seen any blood in the streets so far. One question now is whether the Bay Area high-tech boom is getting something of a second wind. The change in employment trends is one of the indications we are seeing that it might be, hopefully without the irrational exuberance, but it is far too early to come to any definitive conclusion.
Paragon Special Reports on San Francisco
and Bay Area Markets & Housing Affordability
Full report: Bay Area Real Estate Markets & Demographics
A Tumultuous Time in Financial Markets
The S&P 500 vs. the Shanghai Composite Index
We initially created this chart last autumn, and thought it would be interesting to update it for a longer term perspective. Obviously, dramatic shifts in financial markets often affect real estate markets as well.
A year ago at the end of August 2015, a very volatile year began for national and international financial markets. Initially triggered by a crash in the Chinese stock market, sparking serious concerns regarding the international economy, the S&P 500 fell significantly, but then recovered completely by mid-autumn. Then the oil price crisis of early 2016 dramatically affected the S&P, but again, it recovered completely within 2 months. When the Brexit vote came in late June, the market barely reacted, and then the S&P soon hit a new all-time high, a little above its previous spring 2015 peak.
Thousands of pundit prognostications later, many predicting crash and doom, U.S. financial markets are basically back to where they were when the Chinese stock market crisis began one year ago.
San Francisco Market
Perhaps the statistic most indicative of change is that the number of listings expiring or being withdrawn from the market without selling has gone up a whopping 60% (and for luxury condos, up over 100%). This is the clearest sign possible of sellers trying to sell their homes for more money than any buyer is willing to pay.
As always, please remember that the heat of different market segments can vary dramatically by property type, price range and location. The more affordable house market, for example, is still crazy hot in many areas of the city. And more affordable markets outside the city have also generally continued to be very competitive.
These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but they may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Statistics are generalities, longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term, and we will always know more about what’s actually going on in the present, in the future. New construction condos not listed or sold on MLS are not counted in these statistics, though they often affect market dynamics.
|No one knows San Francisco real estate better than Paragon.|